(Bloomberg) -- After trouncing the dollar this year, the euro is set for a repeat performance in 2018, according to forecasters.
Buying the shared currency ranks among next year’s top trades as it’s set to get new momentum from the European Central Bank’s gradual unwind of ultra-loose monetary policy. The euro surged 12 percent for the best Group-of-10 performance against the dollar this year. ING Bank NV is predicting a gain of about 10 percent in 2018.
The median estimate of strategists surveyed by Bloomberg has the euro climbing to $1.21 by the fourth quarter while options put the odds of attaining that level at more than 80 percent by then. Another bullish indicator can be found in so-called risk reversals, where calls cost more than puts.
The focus on a more hawkish ECB dominates thinking among bulls, including Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. CIBC and ING had the second- and third-best forecast scores among banks and financial firms in a Bloomberg survey for the third quarter of 2017.
ING’s chief European rates strategist Petr Krpata expects currency markets to price in a deposit rate of zero long before the ECB moves. “That will drive up the euro,” Krpata said.
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